A shot at the future: NBA Mock Draft
This years draft is full of players with great nicknames...We have the JJ, the TT, the Bargs and the Ammo but there is no sign of any of the above being the next Lebron or Shaq. With the top 10 as they are right now there isn't even one guy who stands out with enough of that "upside" factor that makes him the consensus #1 pick in this years draft. I have enlisted a fellow basketball junkie Lincoln to help me out with a mock draft of the top 10 picks which further will show how much of a crapshoot this draft. Draft day is exactly two weeks away as I write this (Lincoln gave his picks a while ago...) and I hope to have us both back on June 28th live blogging with an analysis on each pick as we hear Stephen A Smith go on his rants from Madison Square Garden. So without further adieu here goes....
#1: Toronto Raptors - LaMarcus Aldridge (Natasha)
The Raptors have had some good luck drafting Dallas products and I think if the Raptors utilize this draft pick they are going to go with Aldridge. He is passionate, he solid fundamentals, will be a solid pick and make the Raptors frontline a nightmare for opposing teams to defend. LaMarcus already has a good back to the basket game and can play the finesse game that seems to be more in demand for NBA centers now. All this said I of the thinking that the Raptors are going to trade down so they can acquire a veteran to go along with a top 10 draft pick.
#1: Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani (Lincoln)
All signs coming out of Colangelo's camp is that he's going Euro with this pick. He's scouted Bargnani extensively for years, has numerous connections and is being fairly public about this preference. This is just the sort of unorthodox pick that I can see BC making.
#2: Chicago Bulls - Andrea Bargnani (Natasha)
To be honest I think Tyrus is too much like Tyson Chandler but the bulls need another rebounder and if the Raptors go with Aldridge then the Bulls are going to grab Bargs. The need a scoring big man more than the Raptors do and even though there have been rumors that they will go with Brandon Roy I don't see Chicago going for a guard in this years draft.
#2: Chicago Bulls - LaMarcus Aldridge (Lincoln)
Makes too much sense not to happen. There's been talk of them preferring Tyrus, but they need the low-post scoring and a power forward, Aldridge is the best fit for that. They'd be hoping he's Bosh version 2.0.
#3: Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay (Natasha)
Wow this guy who was almost everyone's #1 pick at the start of the year is barely hanging in the top 5. I think the Bobcats will end up taking Rudy Gay because he is a scorer who can play defense. Felton is going to be solid and a healthy Oakafor will be good but Rudy Gay would be the perfect pick for them at SF and with a good amount of salary cap space they can rely on his "upside" factor and give him time to develop while still investing in one or two vets.
#3: Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay (Lincoln)
Call this a hunch. Rudy Gay is due for a resurgence. Now that the big tournament has left its mark, it's time for workout sessions. He should crush those. Bickerstaff has all but shot down the Morrison rumors (while defending Gay), and who can blame him. Who would you rather have, a one dimensional hustle player who's going to have to squeeze blood from a stone just to get a shot off at the NBA level, or a two-way player who's undeniably far more talented and whose biggest knock has been that he might not reach his maximum on-court assertiveness? Asking if you'd rather have 100% of Morrison or 65% of Rudy Gay's potential is like asking if you'd you rather have 100% of $100 or 65% of $1000.
#4: Portland Trailblazers - Adam Morrison (Natasha)
Portland needs something to give them a boost and Adam Morrison might just be the answer. He is a scorer and he has a passion for the game rarely seen in many over-paid NBA players. His breakdown in the tourney wasn't really the best idea but Portland needs someone to come there and bring something real back to this team. If they want to shed the Jailblazers image they need to ship out the Darius Miles and Zach Randolphs and bring in some passion and skill that Adam Morrsion displayed all year in the NCAA.
#4: Portland Trailblazers - Adam Morrison (Lincoln)
Scoring + college hype + model citizen = Blazers pick? Really who knows what's going on in Portland, but if anyone in the top 5 was going to pick Morrison this is the one team where it might actually make some sense. Rumor has it the team is up for sale. If they dump salary this off-season they may want to add a name in Morrison to sell a few tickets. I guess Morrison has appeal.
#5: Atlanta Hawks - Brandon Roy (Natasha)
Roy is probably the most complete and ready player in this years draft. He is a combo guard who can do a lot of things well. Atlanta right now needs every position that is not a Small Forward and even though Lincoln sees them picking Tyrus Thomas, I see Tyrus eventually being more of a SF Gerald Wallace style. Brandon Roy will give them a scorer who can play the point and will be able to contribute immediately. (I am hoping the Raptors grab this guy though)
#5: Atlanta Hawks - Tyrus Thomas (Lincoln)
Height jokes aside, they could use someone with some defensive potential for the front court. Besides, with no point guards worth taking this high, picking up the best asset they can makes sense.
#6: Minnesota Timberwolves: Tyrus Thomas (Natasha)
Kevin Garnett's contract is straight up ugly! Minnesota has almost half their salary cap tied up with his contract and have not had too much success with the draft and/or lack of draft picks in the recent years but I think they are going to have to starting building a team around him through the draft or if they can trade him then they will manage to put together a decent team. I am still not sold on Tyrus Thomas but he has shown enough of the "upside" to know he can be a force. If Minnesota cant move up in the Draft I am sure they will be happy to take him unless Rob Babcock steps in then we might see them draft J.J Redick!!
#6: Minnesota Timberwolves - Brandon Roy (Lincoln)
Minnesota wants to keep trying to put a team around Garnett. I'm sure they'd love to trade the pick for some immediate veteran help, but assuming the right opportunity doesn't present itself, Roy seems ready to contribute right away on an NBA level plus he gives something in the back court.
#7: Boston Celtics - Marcus Williams (Natasha)
The celtics might not have Paul Pierce as the face of the franchise at the start of next season but they do need to look to get a pure point guard and at this spot I think Marcus Williams is the best option. Sure he has the whole "stealing the laptop" thing going against him and some said he was out of shape but he has great court vision and during this years tournament was by far the best point guard. He might need some developing but I think he would be a good fit for this young Celtics team.
#7: Boston Celtics - Rajon Rondo (Lincoln)
Everyone's had this guy's stock in freefall for much of the season for no reason it seems other than the fact he was ill-suited for Kentucky's style of play. Sobriety time. Boston loved their workout with him, and they could use a pure point. Two bold predictions at this time for Rondo: 1) he's going ahead of Marcus Williams because he is actually the best point guard prospect in the draft (though it does depend what style you want your team to play); 2) he's going lottery and probably top 10.
#8: Houston Rockets - Randy Foye (Natasha)
Going into last season we all thought the Rockets were going to be great and it all came crashing. T-Mac had a rough year and the team was riddled with injuries. Luther Head was a pleasant surprise but the Rockets need some help in the back court and I think Randy Foye can be a combo guard and will be able to fill the role of a SG/PG. Its really not known how T-Mac will be next season but Foye was solid in his time at college and will be able to contribute right away like Luther Head did this past season.
#8: Houston Rockets - Shelden Williams (Lincoln)
Size (well he's not all that tall, but he plays up front... You get my meaning) tends to start to win out in a lot of GM's minds this time of year, especially when there's a lot of parity otherwise. Assuming he doesn't just totally suck, Houston could put Shelden to some potential use up front (especially given that the Swift experiment didn't work out).
#9: Golden State Warriors - Patrick O'Bryant (Natasha)
The big man with upside factor starts creeping in the top 10 at this point. O'Bryant had an amazing tournament and he might be a project and he admits it himself but Golden State could use a solid big body and they would be stupid to pass him up. Shelden is available but I don't see him being as strong as O'Bryant in the NBA.
#9: Golden State Warriors - Rodney Carney (Lincoln)
Why not? Golden State doesn't really need more junk and spare parts at any position since they have plenty already, but Mike Dunleavy really sucks so they might as well take a run at trying to do better while figuring out what to do with the rest of the junk and spare parts.
#10: Seattle Supersonics - Shelden Williams (Natasha)
I really believe Shelden Williams is the next coming of Antonio Davis (Davis of 5 years ago albeit). His physique, his aggressiveness, he was solid in college and will be productive for a long time in the NBA and the Sonics will be happy to take him here. He isn't quite tall enough compared to most of the C's in the league but he has a NBA body and he seems to show a great grasp of the game in terms of position on the floor to grab rebounds and has a consistent offensive game in the paint. It might help him to increase his shooting range but he is a solid pick for the Sonics at #10.
#10: Seattle Supersonics - Patrick O'Bryant (Lincoln)
Again size. Since he's the only centre anyone cares about in this draft (and even then, barely), I figure that should keep pushing his stock up and up until it creeps into the top 10. It's a vicious cycle. Basically a centre is projected to go, let's say, 20-25. But there's no one projected ahead of him who plays his position. So a couple teams with the 17th pick and the 16th pick start saying "Meh". It's not that much of a reach, and we need a centre. Suddenly his draft range is 16-20. But there's still no one ahead of him and so some teams with the 15th and 14th picks start thinking "We need a centre..." and so on. This continues until some idiot just says "Screw it! I'm taking him top 10". Hey did I mention Babcock is back in the Minny front office?
14 comments:
Excellent analysis by the both of you. I really needed that since with the World Cup and baseball going on, I paid zero attention to the NBA Draft. Kudos.
Same Here HA A HA
And Since it is the Time of Worldcup~ IT is time for you to wrtie something About Football!
GO England!
i'm hoping the raptors trade down, this is probably the worse number 1 to have. there is no consensus number 1 and most of the guys up for the top spot are big forwards but not really prototypical centres which is what the raps need. i'd maybe make a stab at rudy gay an hope he pans out and maybe see if we can pick up a usable free agent big man somewhere. bargani seems a big question to me and lamarcus is cool but still taking him at number one makes me a bit worried
@Justin: this draft is so up in the air its the hardest draft ever to do a mock for but glad you enjoyed.
@arthur: Soccer post is almost done... its going to be more of a funny one with some good reads and some clips and pics.. until then enjoy the 6-10
@j-did: I want the raps to trade down as well because we need a vet mroe than we need another draft pick. I have trust in Colangelo so im sure he has some tricks up his sleeve.
there is no consensus no.1 but many consider this draft to be at least 2 rd. deep meaning quality players are available in the 2nd. round.
bosh likes marcus a. . looks like it's t.o.'s choice.
Would you consider trading Bosh for the #2 pick from Chicago and Hinrich? I mean that would mean a lineup of AB, LA, CV, Mo, and Hinrich as starting lineup + extra cash later on for FA. They said LA is similar to Bosh. They said that LA is soft, however. Even so, that is what they said about Frye. Look how he turned out. Your thoughts?
p.s. I'm glad we have more Raps websites, glad to have read it!
@el greco: I understand that there are players in the 2nd round too that can come in and help a team but not immediate impact guys and i really think the raptors need to look the veteran route in that sense rather than stockpiling more youth on this roster.
@jay: thanx for dropping by, its always nice to know there are some loyal raps fans out there...
That trade has no chance in hell with me... Bosh is already an all-star and this draft really has none of those players at this point.. trading bosh will be like taking 2 stpes backwards... the raps have enough cap room to get the pg they want.
Hey Nat,
Here is some draft info you might be interested in if you are a stats fan!
Great link on AB and Splitter on stats overview:
http://82games.com/euroleague.htm
NBA player success rate from draft 2006:
http://82games.com/nbadraft2006.htm
Hey all,
Thought I'd introduce myself by wading into the discussion here. Does anyone else find it interesting that we don't have a firm public commitment from BC on the Bargnani pick? Don't get me wrong, all signs point to Bargs being his guy, but part of me thinks he may be allowing confusion to reign right from the top to perhaps extract a concession from a team a spot or two below. Also some unforseen things going on vis a vis the draft. For one it sounds like the Hawks have made a promise to Shelden Williams and have told him to shut down his work-outs. That would shred the second half of our mocks drafts.
@justin: glad you enjoyed! It's tough to keep my head in basketball now with the world cup on. As we speak I have Angola v. Mexico on in front of me (cheering for Mexico) and Angola is giving them a run. Ach.
@jdid: Trading down is looking like a fairly complicated affair in this draft. There is a school of thought that the Raps may try it by basically taxing the Bulls, Bobcats or Blazers for a secondary piece and then relying on AB's rumoured threat to pull a Vasquez if anyone else drafts him. That would allow them to still pick AB up a few spots down. But once you move much outside of the top three or so, the Raps primary target would almost have to be the asset/s they get as opposed to the lower pick, because this draft could really go off in so many unpredictable ways. We're looking at maybe 5 or 6 (could be 7 with the Shelden promise) guys who are a mortal lock to go top 10, but with no clear order. If BC did go outside the top 5, I'd think Rondo could still be a worthwhile pick up, but there'd be no guarantees as to where he (or anyone else)would be available. As for Bargnani, I'm feeling increasingly comfortable with him. I don't think he's Dirk, but at the same time he could be a really valuable pick up.
@el greco: This is the thing with this draft. It's garbage at the top, but if you're in the hunt for a mediocre rotation player there'll be plenty of stabs at it well into the second round.
Argh. Tie game. Oh well, Mexico had their chances. Anyway more hoops later.
Nat, Linc... peoples... what's going on?
Nice work on the mock draft. Never an easy task - especially this year.
Lincoln... I don't find it surprising at ALL that Colangelo hasn't officially tipped his hat, saying he'll draft Bargnani. Why would he? Why show your hand, when you could possibly have a flush? He's got all the power, all the options right now. The second he says he's taking X (Bargnani, in this case), that takes away from trading power (eg. If Chicago knows the Raps take Bargnani, and want Roy, or whomever, they no longer need to make a swap to get there man).
Plus, I'm with the school of thought that the Raptors are throwing out smokescreens.
I honestly doubt the Raptors will hang on to top pick... but should they keep it, I see them taking LaMarcus. Bosh wants him, and you can never have enough big men (especially when you're not exactly stacked in the first place).
I really don't see a problem with putting Charlie, Chris AND Aldridge out there at the same time. Why not set the tone, as opposed to following it?
Make them adjust to you.
Just my thoughts.
Nat... I'm not sure if I'll be available for live bloggage. I still don't know if they're going to need me at the Fan. We'll be in touch (thanks for the invite).
Hey Zach, i am also going with the whole smokescreen thing and i am now more and more of the mindset that the raps will end up trading that pick. Aldridge and Bargs are both more offensive bigs than defensive and so this wont solve any of our problems anymore. Ppl are of the thought that if u going to go big Bargs might just be more vesatile and more of a legit C than LaMarcus. I heard from all over the place that Aldridge really isnt keen on playing the 5...
All this said i really just want draft day to come soon so all this waiting in limbo can be done. I cant ever remember having such a stressful offseason as a raptor fan(even though its mostly stressed cuz of so many possibilities)
About the draft day thing... ill hit u up on e-mail maybe we can exchange msn or sumthin
seem to me that marcus a. is the safest pick for the raps altho' the fact that colangelo is bringing williams back for a 2nd look means they are willing to trade down . 'coz there is no way that williams is no.1.
i hope they will ask andrea b. to come to toronto for a closer look .
@Zack: Yep. That's what I was hinting at above. Confusion = leverage. I had/have the personal suspicion he was/is trying to complete a very specific switch, that being Toronto's number 1 for Charlotte's number 3 and Brevin Knight. With Michael Jordan there now in Charlotte though it's tough to see which direction the Bobcats are looking to go vis a vis the draft. A lot of speculation now that MJ wants Roy, whereas Bickerstaff still favours Gay. That might have worked in Toronto's favour if the Bulls were still looking at Roy, but it's seeming like the Bulls may have made a promise to Tyrus.
If all these goings on are factored into a new mock the top 5 is starting to come into shape:
1. Bargnani
2. Tyrus
3. Roy
4. Morrison
5. Shelden W.
@Jay: In response to your trade proposal..."Would you consider trading Bosh for the #2 pick from Chicago and Hinrich? I mean that would mean a lineup of AB, LA, CV, Mo, and Hinrich as starting lineup + extra cash later on for FA. They said LA is similar to Bosh. They said that LA is soft, however. Even so, that is what they said about Frye. Look how he turned out. Your thoughts?"
Yes look how that turned out. Frye is soft. Of course neither Aldridge nor Bosh provide a lick of interior post defense either. But I wouldn't gamble on Aldridge simply turning into the next Bosh. As far as I can tell that comparison is stemming as much from the superficial facts that they are coming out of Texas, are skinny PF's and are friends, as much as it is on any real judgement about potential and game. I remain somewhat skeptical about Aldridge. I think his ceiling may have been exagerrated in many people's minds. Basic point, I'm not against trading Bosh for the right combo of talent, but I'd want more of a sure thing than the number 2 pick in this weak draft and a second tier player. Either way though, it isn't happening anytime soon.
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